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Xolare RCR Energy Tbk.

SOLA · analisa Selasa, 27 Oktober 2026

model analisa cb-flash

Sell

67 rupiah per lembar · -1,48% · -

Net broker seluruhnya 220,7 jt rupiah. Kapitalisasi 223,5 M.

Ringkasan

Empat hal yang menentukan. Laporan penuh ada di bawah.

Putusan
Sell. Keputusan untuk SOLA.JK adalah Sell, dengan target alokasi 0% dari alokasi standar: jangan buka posisi baru, dan bagi yang sudah memegang, keluar penuh secara bertahap memakai limit sell di sekitar referensi 136 — jangan menunggu bounce ke 143–149 karena...
Aliran dana
YP beli 108,8 jt
Posisi harga
-17,2% terhadap SMA50, asing 0,9% dari volume 20 sesi
Rencana
belum masuk daftar beli, lihat keputusan akhir
VWAP
66
rata-rata berbobot volume
Nilai transaksi
117,1 jt
rupiah, sesi -
Frekuensi
205
kali transaksi
Volume
1,8 jt
lembar

Siapa yang membeli, di harga berapa

10 broker terbesar dari 12, 2024-05-08 sampai 2026-10-27. Positif berarti akumulasi.

BrokerNamaNetNet volumeBeliJual
YP MIRAE ASSET SEKURITAS INDONESIA 108,8 jt 1,6 jt 162,7 jt 53,8 jt
GR PANIN SEKURITAS TBK. 49,8 jt 739,0 rb 49,9 jt 67,0 rb
XL STOCKBIT SEKURITAS DIGITAL 16,4 jt 221,9 rb 275,6 jt 259,2 jt
CC MANDIRI SEKURITAS 13,5 jt 196,5 rb 84,2 jt 70,7 jt
AZ SUCOR SEKURITAS 12,1 jt 175,5 rb 12,1 jt -
SQ BCA SEKURITAS 6,9 jt 99,0 rb 7,1 jt 142,0 rb
XC AJAIB SEKURITAS ASIA 6,3 jt 90,1 rb 52,1 jt 45,8 jt
DR RHB SEKURITAS INDONESIA 2,2 jt 31,0 rb 9,4 jt 7,2 jt
OD BRI DANAREKSA SEKURITAS 2,1 jt 30,9 rb 2,9 jt 734,8 rb
PD INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS 1,5 jt 21,8 rb 7,5 jt 6,0 jt

Akumulasi terjadi di level ini

Rata-rata beli di bawah penutupan berarti pembeli masuk lebih murah dari harga sekarang.

BeliHarga rata-rataNilaiJualHarga rata-rataNilai
XL 69 275,6 jt XL 69 259,2 jt
YP 69 162,7 jt CP 68 122,8 jt
CC 69 84,2 jt CC 69 70,7 jt
XC 69 52,1 jt EP 69 70,0 jt
GR 67 49,9 jt YP 70 53,8 jt
BQ 69 34,7 jt XC 69 45,8 jt
AZ 69 12,1 jt BQ 68 34,1 jt
CP 68 10,3 jt XA 69 19,9 jt

Direksi membeli di harga ini

8 dari 49 catatan terakhir.

TanggalNamaJabatanAksiPerubahanHarga
2026-08-03 MOCHAMAD BHADAIWI - Buy +676,500 96
2026-07-14 MOCHAMAD BHADAIWI - Buy +358,400 102
2026-01-14 ENERGI HIJAU INVESTAMA - Mesop_Option 0 0
2026-01-06 ACHMAD ALWI SH KOMISARIS Buy +250,000 121
2026-01-06 WINARDI SANI KOMISARIS Buy +250,000 121
2026-01-06 IMAM BUCHAIRI - Buy +537,000 121

Keputusan akhir

831 kata

Rating: Sell

Executive Summary: Keputusan untuk SOLA.JK adalah Sell, dengan target alokasi 0% dari alokasi standar: jangan buka posisi baru, dan bagi yang sudah memegang, keluar penuh secara bertahap memakai limit sell di sekitar referensi 136 — jangan menunggu bounce ke 143–149 karena resistance itu sudah dua kali menolak harga. Perhatikan bahwa 136 adalah referensi, bukan target absolut: jika bid melemah atau volume mengering, prioritasnya mengurangi eksposur; jika zero-volume/halt menghalangi, eksekusi tranche maksimum yang realistis, sisakan residual sekecil mungkin, dan jangan pernah average down di 120–129 atau di bawahnya. Invalidasi untuk residual apa pun adalah penutupan di bawah 129, dengan risiko air pocket ke 120,17 lalu 103. Tidak ada short entry karena biaya pinjam dan slippage kemungkinan tidak ekonomis, dan tidak ada kewajiban untuk segera memutar modal ke nama lain setelah keluar — cash adalah opsi, bukan kegagalan.

Investment Thesis: Kasus bear menang secara meyakinkan karena ketiga analis risiko — agresif, konservatif, dan netral — konvergen pada arah yang sama tanpa bergantung pada data flow yang rusak. Yang menentukan bukan retorika, melainkan angka dan struktur yang terverifikasi.

Fundamental sudah cukup berat tanpa asumsi tambahan. H1 2026 SOLA.JK: revenue Rp12,318bn, COGS Rp19,857bn, gross loss Rp7,539bn, G&A Rp4,413bn, net loss Rp13,730bn — gross margin -61,2%, dan seperti dicatat Research Manager, revenue harus naik sekitar 4–5x hanya untuk menutup gross loss plus G&A. Hipotesis bull bahwa COGS didominasi biaya tetap sehingga contribution margin bisa positif tetap hipotesis, tanpa bukti utilisasi terminal melonjak. P/S 8,8x untuk bisnis bermargin bruto negatif, dengan neraca yang tidak terbaca dan risiko dilusi ekuitas, jelas bukan "opsi murah". Analis konservatif benar: ini kombinasi bisnis yang membakar nilai plus disclosure yang tidak memadai — tidak ada margin of safety.

Teknikal menolak tesis "uptrend besar masih utuh". Pada snapshot 19 Sep 2025 harga 136 berada di bawah EMA10 143,39 dan SMA50 149,08; MACD -5,24 dengan histogram -1,85 yang kembali melebar negatif (dari -4,77); RSI 39,8 lemah tetapi belum oversold; rangkaian lower high 206→196→184→156→154→151→150→147 belum pecah; dan bounce 9–15 September gagal di 149–150. ATR 10,58 (≈7,8% per hari) berarti 136 duduk di tengah range yang tidak nyaman: reward ~10% melawan tren ke 143–153, downside 12–24% ke 129 lalu 120,17 lalu 103. SMA200 91,63 berada ~32–33% di bawah harga, jadi itu bukan support dekat, melainkan sisa kenaikan Juli–Agustus — argumen analis agresif yang saya terima, dan analis konservatif pun mengonfirmasi bahwa stop di bawah SMA200 bukan manajemen risiko.

Tidak ada trigger beli yang valid — dan ini kontradiksi eksekusi bull. Bull sendiri menetapkan trigger flush 120–129 dengan volume balik, atau close di atas 145 dengan volume >25 juta saham/hari, lalu mengakui tidak mau entry di 136. Tidak satu pun trigger terjadi, tetapi proposal finalnya tetap BUY. Itu tidak bisa diterima. Analis netral merumuskannya dengan tepat: netralitas tanpa data di saham illikuid secara mekanis sama dengan posisi long pasif yang menanggung downside.

Likuiditas membuat exit tidak pasti, jadi exit harus didahulukan. Free float ~20%, turnover 0,0032, value traded ~Rp117mn/hari, MESOP 57,8%, pihak terkait ~79%, pernah ada zero-volume print Rp155, dan riwayat halt. Insider buying terbesar 676.500 lembar di 96 hanya sekitar Rp65mn (~0,03% market cap), dan ada Komisaris A. A. Sh menjual 190.000 lembar di 167 — bukan bukti infleksi, melainkan tanda mereka juga menanggung kerugian. Analis konservatif benar bahwa dalam kondisi ini stop bisa gagal dieksekusi, sehingga ukuran residual harus diasumsikan tidak bisa keluar tepat waktu dan dijaga seminimal mungkin.

Koreksi terhadap ketiga kubu. (1) Analis agresif memakai snapshot salah tanggal 27 Okt 2026 di ~Rp66–68 sebagai "cek arah luar sampel" — itu hindsight bias, dan konservatif serta netral benar menolaknya; pelajarannya hanya tentang risiko repricing/halt, bukan bukti arah untuk keputusan 19 Sep 2025. (2) Analis agresif juga mengubah nol eksposur menjadi narasi "velocity" dan rotasi modal; kita tidak tahu posisi atau kas pemanggil, jadi itu asumsi portofolio yang tidak berdasar — saya ikuti konservatif dan netral: cash adalah opsi. (3) Analis konservatif terlalu absolut menyamakan target alokasi nol dengan eksposur nol yang bisa dieksekusi seketika; refinement netral dipakai di sini — target 0% adalah kebijakan, eksekusi harus likuiditas-aware dengan limit order bertahap, dan 136 adalah referensi bukan target mutlak. (4) Analis agresif memakai pola vendor "RSI area bounce" sambil menolak tool yang sama karena date mismatch — inkonsistensi yang saya akui; struktur harga SOLA.JK sendiri sudah cukup untuk menyimpulkan bounce gagal.

Data yang hilang dicatat eksplisit. Neraca, order flow/broker summary, dan data sentimen tidak tersedia; laporan sentimen sendiri memberi skor 5,0/10 dengan keyakinan rendah dan menulis agar output-nya tidak dipakai sebagai input keputusan. Ketiadaan data bukan argumen bullish dan bukan alasan menunggu: beban pembuktian ada di sisi bull, dan belum terpenuhi. Keputusan ini dibuat berdasarkan P&L, teknikal, dan struktur likuiditas — bukan asumsi solvabilitas.

Apa yang mengubah pandangan ini: (1) close di atas 145 dengan volume >25 juta saham/hari; (2) reversal bervolume tinggi dari 120–129; dan/atau (3) bukti terverifikasi perbaikan gross margin/utilisasi terminal disertai neraca yang transparan. Sampai salah satu terjadi, tidak ada alokasi baru untuk SOLA.JK.

Price Target: 120.0

Time Horizon: Segera — exit bertahap dalam beberapa hari sampai 4 minggu (likuiditas-aware)

Rencana trader

309 kata

Action: Sell

Reasoning: The bear case for SOLA.JK is stronger than the bull case, and it does not depend on the unusable order-flow data. The verified price structure is post-blow-off distribution: price at 136 is below EMA10 143.39 and SMA50 149.08, MACD is −5.24 with histogram re-widening negative, RSI 39.8 is weak but not oversold, and the 9–15 Sep bounce failed at 149–150. The lower-high sequence 206→196→184→156→154→151→150→147 remains intact, with 129 the key support; below that, air-pocket risk to 120.17 and then 103. No valid buy trigger has occurred—neither a close above 145 on >25M shares/day nor a high-volume reversal from 120–129. Fundamentally, the H1 2026 gross loss and net loss cited in the plan are severe, gross margin is deeply negative, and P/S 8.8x is not cheap for a negative-margin business with an unclear balance sheet and dilution risk. Liquidity is poor for SOLA.JK: free float around 20%, value traded around Rp117mn/day, zero-volume prints, tiny insider buying, and a commissioner sale. The flow-tool date mismatch should be ignored, but the absence of flow is not a bullish input. Target allocation should be 0%.

Entry Price: Not applicable for a new long. For existing holders, use 136 as the exit reference and work limit sell orders; do not wait for a bounce into 143–149. No short entry is recommended because borrow costs and slippage are likely uneconomic.

Stop Loss: For any residual long, a close below 129 invalidates the position. A tactical long would only be reconsidered after a close above 145 with volume >25M shares/day, or a high-volume reversal from 120–129, with a stop below the relevant low.

Position Sizing: 0% of standard allocation for SOLA.JK. If already holding, exit fully in tranches using limit orders given poor liquidity. If zero-volume/halt conditions prevent exit, reduce the maximum executable amount, keep residual exposure minimal, and do not average down.

Rencana investasi

499 kata

Recommendation: Sell

Rationale: Untuk SOLA.JK, kasus bear menang bukan karena data flow hilang, tetapi karena angka yang terverifikasi sudah cukup berat. H1 2026: revenue Rp12,318bn, COGS Rp19,857bn, gross loss Rp7,539bn, G&A Rp4,413bn, net loss Rp13,730bn — gross margin -61.2%, dan revenue harus naik sekitar 4–5x hanya untuk menutup gross loss plus G&A. Hipotesis bull bahwa COGS didominasi biaya tetap sehingga contribution margin bisa positif tetap hipotesis; tidak ada bukti utilisasi terminal melonjak. P/S 8.8x untuk bisnis dengan gross margin negatif bukan opsi murah, terutama dengan neraca yang tidak terbaca dan risiko dilusi ekuitas. Teknikal juga tidak mendukung: pada 19 Sep 2025 harga 136 berada di bawah EMA10 143.39 dan SMA50 149.08, MACD -5.24 dengan histogram -1.85 yang kembali melebar negatif, RSI 39.8 belum oversold, rangkaian lower high 206→196→184→156→154→151→150→147 belum pecah, dan bounce 9–15 September gagal di 149–150. SMA200 91.63 berada 33% di bawah 136, jadi bukan support dekat. Bull mencampur snapshot teknikal Sep 2025 (harga 136) dengan snapshot fundamental 2026 (harga 66, P/S 8.8x, net loss Rp13.7bn); itu merusak klaim “uptrend besar masih utuh” sekaligus klaim “opsi murah”. Likuiditas juga bukan fitur: free float ~20%, turnover 0.0032, value traded Rp117mn/hari, MESOP 57.8%, pihak terkait ~79%, dan pernah ada zero-volume print Rp155 — exit tidak terjamin. Insider buying terbesar 676,500 lembar di 96 hanya sekitar Rp65mn atau ~0.03% market cap, dan ada Komisaris A. A. Sh yang menjual 190,000 lembar di 167; ini bukan bukti infleksi. Yang paling menentukan: bull sendiri menetapkan trigger flush 120–129 dengan volume balik atau close di atas 145 dengan volume >25 juta/hari, lalu mengakui tidak mau entry di 136. Tidak satu pun trigger terjadi, tetapi final proposal tetap BUY. Itu kontradiksi eksekusi. Dengan bukti fundamental negatif, tren jangka pendek rusak, likuiditas buruk, dan tidak ada setup beli valid, sisi bear lebih kuat. Ketiadaan neraca dan order flow tidak boleh dibaca sebagai argumen bullish; beban pembuktian ada di bull, dan belum terpenuhi.

Strategic Actions: Tetapkan target alokasi 0% dari standard allocation untuk SOLA.JK. Jika sudah memiliki posisi, keluar sepenuhnya; jangan menunggu bounce ke 143–149 karena resistance tersebut sudah terbukti menolak harga. Eksekusi keluar secara bertahap dengan limit order, bukan market order, mengingat value traded hanya sekitar Rp117mn/hari dan free float ~20%; pecah menjadi beberapa tranche dan prioritaskan likuiditas di hari volume lebih tinggi. Jangan averaging down di 120–129 atau di bawahnya, karena belum ada trigger valid dan risiko air pocket ke 120.17 lalu 103 tetap ada. Jika keluar dalam beberapa hari tidak memungkinkan karena volume nol/halt, kurangi eksposur maksimal yang bisa dieksekusi dan dokumentasikan risiko likuiditas; jangan menambah posisi baru. Hindari short selling karena biaya pinjam dan slippage kemungkinan besar tidak ekonomis. Evaluasi ulang hanya jika: (1) harga close di atas 145 dengan volume >25 juta lembar/hari, dan/atau (2) ada bukti terverifikasi perbaikan gross margin/utilisasi terminal serta neraca yang transparan. Sampai itu terjadi, tidak ada alokasi baru untuk SOLA.JK. Catat secara eksplisit bahwa neraca, order flow, dan data sentimen tidak tersedia; keputusan ini dibuat berdasarkan P&L, teknikal, dan struktur likuiditas yang ada, bukan pada asumsi solvabilitas.

Analisa teknikal dan aliran dana

1055 kata

⚠️ First: a data integrity problem you need to know about

The flow tools are not anchored to your analysis date. They returned data for 27 Oct 2026, a date on which SOLA trades around Rp68 — not the 19 Sep 2025 session I'm analyzing at Rp136.

Tool Date returned Consistent with 2025-09-19?
Price bars / indicators / snapshot 2025-09-19 (close 136) ✅ Yes — verified
Broker summary ~2026-10-27 (all accumulation at Rp67–71) ❌ No
Accumulation history (no rows returned) ❌ Unusable
Order flow 0 ticks, even when I specified 2025-09-19 ❌ Unusable
Vendor verdict "Selasa, 27 Okt 2026" at Rp68 ❌ No
Market breadth Live session, "Sesi 1 berlangsung" ❌ Not the Sep-2025 session

I am therefore dropping all bandarmologi, order-flow and vendor-verdict inputs from the conclusion. Using broker net-buy figures from Rp68 to justify an action at Rp136 would be fabricating a narrative. Everything below rests on the price series and indicators, which I verified are internally consistent (snapshot RSI 39.81 and MACD −5.24 both reproduce exactly in the indicator series).


What actually happened to the price

This is a post-blow-off distribution, not a normal pullback:

  • 24 Jul low 103 → 7 Aug high 206 — roughly doubled in ~10 sessions.
  • 5 Aug close 139 → 6 Aug close 187 (+34.5% in one day) on 836M shares — the climax print.
  • 7 Aug gap to 206 then closed at 177 — a massive outside-day reversal on 657M shares.
  • Price then churned 163–184 for three weeks (repeated 180–187 highs failing at 8/14, 8/15, 8/21, 8/22).
  • 28 Aug 181 → 19 Sep 136 = −45 points, about −25%, and −34% from the 206 high.

Volume tells the same story: hundreds of millions of shares/day in August, now down to 15.9M on 19 Sep (turnover Rp2.19bn, 1,532 trades). The speculative crowd that created the move is gone. A decline on collapsing volume is less alarming than distribution on volume — but it also means there is no bid to absorb supply.

Verified technical state (19 Sep 2025, close 136)

Indicator Value Read
Close 136 —
EMA10 143.39 Price below; falling resistance
SMA50 149.08 Price below
SMA200 91.63 Price well above — longer uptrend intact
RSI(14) 39.81 Weak, not oversold — room to fall
Boll mid / UB / LB 152.75 / 185.33 / 120.17 Below mid band, drifting to lower
MACD / Signal / Hist −5.24 / −3.39 / −1.85 Below signal, histogram re-widening negative
ATR(14) 10.58 ~7.8% of price — extreme volatility

Two things worth emphasising:

  1. The 10 EMA (143.39) sits above the 50 SMA (149.08)... inverted — the short average is still being dragged down by the August spike and will keep falling. Resistance here is dynamic and dropping toward the price.
  2. MACD is re-accelerating, not flattening. The sequence −4.60 (9/12) → −4.28 → −4.53 → −4.52 → −4.77 → −5.24 (9/19) shows the down-momentum expanding again after a brief hesitation. The 9/19 bar (−4 points, closed at the low of the range) broke the short bounce.

The failed bounce is the key structural fact

The 9 Sep low was 129; price rallied to 149 on 15 Sep, then rolled over 142 → 144 → 140 → 136. The rally stalled exactly into the 149–150 zone (which is where the SMA50 and the old consolidation floor sit). Descending highs since 7 Aug: 206 → 196 → 184 → 156 → 154 → 151 → 150 → 147. That is a textbook lower-high sequence, and the most recent bounce failed at a lower level than the previous two.

Levels that matter

  • Support: 129 (9/9 low). This is the line. Below it, 120.17 (lower Bollinger) and then 103 (7/24 low).
  • Resistance: 143–145 (EMA10 + prior closes), then 149–153 (SMA50 + Bollinger mid).

On the vendor's opinion

I'm setting the vendor's numbers aside for the date mismatch, but its pattern logic is a fair qualitative cross-check and it happens to agree with what the chart shows: it flags "RSI area bounce" as a historical trap (win rate 26.9%, avg −1.84%), which is precisely the shape of the 9–15 Sep bounce that just failed at 149. I also note the vendor's own card is internally inconsistent — at Rp68 it labels MACD "Trend: Bullish" while issuing AVOID/stoploss. I weight my own verified indicator series over that.

Bottom line

Bias: bearish / no new long exposure. The evidence — price below EMA10 and SMA50, MACD expanding negative, RSI at 39.8 with room to travel, a failed bounce at a lower high, and volume that has evaporated — says the correction from the August blow-off is unfinished. The only genuinely bullish element is the SMA200 at 91.63, which just says the multi-month trend is still up; it is far too distant to support a trade.

Concretely:

  • No entry here. 136 is mid-range between falling resistance at 143 and support at 129 — poor risk/reward on a 10.58 ATR stock.
  • If long: the 129 close is the invalidation. Risk below that is a fast air-pocket to ~120.
  • A setup only appears on one of two events: (a) a close back above 145 with volume expanding meaningfully above the recent 15–25M/day pace, which would break the lower-high sequence; or (b) a flush into 120–129 that reverses intraday on heavy volume, offering a defined stop. Neither has occurred as of 19 Sep.

One more risk flag for position sizing: the price series shows zero-volume sessions with flat Rp155 prints on 5 Jun and again 19–25 Jun — this is a stock that gets halted. Size accordingly.

Caveat: the broker-accumulation and order-flow dimensions of this analysis are missing, not negative. If the flow tools can be re-run against the 2025-09-19 session, the read could change — a broker campaign accumulating into this decline would be a materially different signal. I'd want that before acting on the bearish case above.

Analisa fundamental

1112 kata

SOLA.JK — Xolare RCR Energy Tbk.

Fundamental view: Avoid / Sell-into-strength. Nothing in the financials supports this price; the only "bull case" is ownership/float mechanics, not business value.

Data note: the balance sheet and cash flow tools returned only section headers (no line items) across quarterly, annual, and multiple curr_dates — so leverage, liquidity, and cash burn must be inferred. Seasonality returned no rows (insufficient history). Everything below is anchored on the Q2 2026 filed P&L and the insider register.


1. Snapshot

Metric Value
Price 66 (close 68), −2.95% today
Market cap ~Rp217bn @ 66 (Rp223.5bn @ 68)
Shares out 3,287,375,000
Today's value traded Rp117mn (203 trades, 17,823 lots)
Turnover ratio 0.0032
Sector Energy / bitumen terminal & distribution

A ~Rp220bn market cap company trading Rp117mn a day. That single line defines the tradability problem before any fundamental discussion.


2. The P&L is the whole story (H1 2026, cumulative)

Line Rp % of revenue
Revenue 12,318,091,421 100.0%
COGS (19,856,670,185) (161.2%)
Gross profit (7,538,578,764) (61.2%)
G&A (4,412,891,766) (35.8%)
Final tax (167,033,076) (1.4%)
Other expense (2,418,976,370) (19.6%)
Net loss (13,729,882,834) (111.5%)

The critical fact: gross margin is negative 61%. The company spends Rp1.61 to generate Rp1.00 of revenue before a single rupiah of overhead. Every incremental sale at the current mix widens the loss. This is not a "scaling problem" in the ordinary sense.

Two readings, and both are bad:

  • If COGS is truly variable (commodity trading spread that is underwater), the business has negative contribution margin and cannot be fixed by volume. It is burning cash by design.
  • If COGS is dominated by fixed depreciation/idle capacity (likely, given a terminal asset), then contribution margin on incremental volume may be positive — but to absorb Rp7.5bn of gross loss plus Rp4.4bn of overhead, volume would need to multiply several-fold, and H1 revenue of Rp12.3bn (~Rp2bn/month) implies a sub-scale operation. No evidence of that volume inflection in the filed numbers.

Annualized: revenue ~Rp24.6bn, net loss ~Rp27.5bn. The company loses more than it sells.


3. Solvency inference (balance sheet unavailable — flag as key unknown)

A Rp13.7bn half-year loss against a Rp217bn market cap implies equity is being consumed at a rapid clip. Xolare listed recently and is at sub-scale; unless there was a large IPO/placement cushion, the trajectory points to a capital raise or shareholder support within a few reporting periods. Until I can see cash, debt, and equity, the going-concern question must be treated as open — and open questions with negative gross margins resolve badly.


4. Insider activity — the one genuine positive, but weak in magnitude

Recent register:

Date Who Action Price
2026-08-03 M. Bhadaiwi BUY +676,500 96
2026-07-14 M. Bhadaiwi BUY +358,400 102
2026-01-06 2 Commissioners + 1 Director + Bhadaiwi BUY (small, ~250k each) 121
2026-01-06 A. A. Sh (Komisaris) SELL −190,000 167

Read carefully:

  • Directors and commissioners have been repeatedly buying into the decline (177 → 148 → 125 → 121 → 102 → 96) and are now ~30% underwater at 66. That is a signal of alignment, not of information — and the ticket sizes are trivial (676,500 shares ≈ Rp65mn for the largest recent buy).
  • The large "buys at price 0" are not open-market conviction: Xolabit Terminal Bitumen (+307.9mn) and Asha Raharja Persada (+260.2mn) are non-market transfers/affiliations. Energi Hijau Investama holds 1.9bn shares via MESOP (57.8% of the company).
  • Known holders ≈ 2.6bn of 3.29bn → free float ~20%, and even that is thinly traded.

Consequence: with ~58% held by one entity and ~79% by related parties, price discovery is weak and the tape is easy to move in both directions. A 66 print is not a market-clearing verdict on value; it is the output of a very shallow order book.


5. Valuation

Metric SOLA
P/S (annualized) ~8.8x
P/E n/a (loss)
P/B not computable (BS unavailable)
EV/EBITDA negative

Paying ~9x revenue for a business with negative gross margin is indefensible on any conventional framework. For a bitumen-terminal/energy-infrastructure asset, 1–3x revenue would apply if it were profitable. The gap means the market is pricing a story (pivot, project pipeline, asset re-rating) or is simply not pricing at all due to float scarcity. Neither is a fundamental thesis you can underwrite.


6. Seasonality

No data returned — no seasonal edge to lean on. Don't manufacture one.


7. Risk register

  1. Negative-margin core business — structural, not cyclical.
  2. Equity erosion / potential capital raise — dilution risk; balance sheet unverifiable with current data access.
  3. Extreme illiquidity — 0.0032 turnover; entry is possible, exit at size is not. Slippage risk dominates any thesis.
  4. Concentration + MESOP overhang — 57.8% single holder, option supply above.
  5. Disclosure quality — inability to retrieve BS/CF line items is itself a caution flag for a name this small.
  6. Down-trend momentum — −63% from Aug-2025 highs (~177); insiders buying has not arrested it.

8. Actionable conclusion

Fundamental rating: Sell / Avoid. Not a value situation — a float-and-story situation.

  • There is no margin of safety to compute and no earnings base to anchor a target. Revenue is shrinking in usefulness as a valuation metric because each unit of it destroys value.
  • What would change the call: (a) sequential gross margin turning positive, (b) a filed balance sheet showing cash to survive ≥4 quarters without dilution, (c) evidence of terminal utilization/volume ramp. None present in the current data set.
  • For a trader: this is a liquidity trap, not an opportunity. Any long is a bet on promotion/float dynamics with a hard stop and position size measured in what you can actually exit — not in what you can enter. The directors' buying at 96–121 provides a sentimental floor narrative, but their aggregate outlay is less than one day's worth of nothing.
  • For an investor: pass. Revisit only after a clean quarter with positive gross profit and a published balance sheet.

Bottom line: the fundamentals make the short case on business quality; the float makes the short untradeable. Net: stand aside.

Analisa sentimen

508 kata

Overall Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 5.0/10) Confidence: Low

Sentiment Report — SOLA.JK

Important caveat before reading

This is a data-availability report, not a sentiment assessment. In this session I have no working access to any news, social-media, or analyst-commentary feed. All three source channels returned nothing — not a low volume of posts, not a placeholder, but no retrievable data at all. Every section below is therefore explicitly empty of evidence. The Neutral / 5.0 score is a mechanical consequence of having zero signal, not a judgement that the stock is fairly valued or directionless. Do not use this output as an input to a trading decision.

1. Source-by-source breakdown

  • News / financial press: NO DATA. Zero articles retrieved. No count of headlines, no tone classification possible, no dates of coverage.
  • Social / retail-investor channels: NO DATA. Zero messages retrieved. No message count, no bullish/bearish ratio, no engagement or velocity measure.
  • Analyst / institutional commentary: NO DATA. No notes, rating changes, or target-price revisions retrieved.

Under the reporting standard used here (one or more sources returning a placeholder or fewer than five data points ⇒ low confidence), this result sits at the floor: zero sources with substantive data.

2. Cross-source divergences and alignments

Not assessable. Divergence analysis requires at least two populated sources; there are none. Any claim of alignment or divergence here would be fabricated.

3. Dominant narrative themes

None detectable. I cannot identify themes (earnings, guidance, regulatory action, ownership/liquidity changes, sector rotation) without source text to read.

4. Catalysts and risks surfaced by the data

None surfaced, because no data was surfaced. Generalised risks that would apply to any thinly covered IDX small cap — low free float, wide bid-ask spreads, headline sensitivity, limited analyst coverage — are structural priors, not observations about SOLA.JK, and are flagged here only so the reader does not mistake their absence for an all-clear.

5. Summary table

Signal Direction Source Supporting evidence
Headline tone n/a News No articles retrieved (0)
Retail positioning n/a Social No messages retrieved (0)
Analyst sentiment / revisions n/a Analyst commentary No notes retrieved (0)
Message-volume anomaly n/a Social No baseline available
Cross-source divergence n/a — Requires ≥2 populated sources

6. Instrument identification (unverified)

The ticker suffix .JK indicates a Jakarta (IDX) listing. The symbol SOLA on IDX is associated with a small-cap energy name, but I have not verified that mapping against a live reference-data source in this session. Treat the identification itself as unconfirmed.

7. Recommendation

Re-run this report once news, social, and analyst feeds are connected. A sentiment read on a name this thinly covered is highly sensitive to single-source artifacts (one local news article or a handful of forum posts can dominate the score), so it should be built from verified counts, with the raw post/article links retained for audit.

Analisa berita

487 kata

SOLA.JK — what I can and can't get

I have no direct quote/OHLC endpoint for individual IDX names, and SOLA returned nothing from the news vendor. To be straight with you: I cannot verify SOLA's price, trend, or setup from current data, and I won't invent levels.

Data status

Data Status
SOLA price / volume / technicals ❌ No quote tool available
SOLA news (last 30d) ❌ Vendor returned no articles for SOLA.JK
Today's screener signal ✅ Fresh — SOLA not present
Market breadth / tape ✅ Live, session 1
Macro (rates, CPI) ❌ FRED key not configured
Prediction markets ⛔ Withheld for this date

What the live tape does tell you

Screener (27 Oct 2026, fresh): only three names triggered — PIPA and BLES both in ⚔️ KONFLIK DISTRIBUSI (distribution conflict: volume rising against price, historically a warning bucket, not accumulation), and IMPC in 🥷 AKUMULASI SENYAP. SOLA is absent, so it has no technical-plus-broker-accumulation trigger on the current run. That's an absence of signal, not a sell signal — but it means any SOLA thesis has to stand on something other than today's flow screen.

Breadth is split, and not friendly to small/mid caps:

  • BBCA +3.06% is doing almost all the heavy lifting — Rp767bn traded, and it's widening intraday (was Rp747bn, now Rp767bn, price 5,050 vs VWAP 4,997).
  • Behind it: BMRI −2.07%, BBRI −1.38%, TLKM −3.74%, BUMI −3.13%, BRPT −6.04%, ENRG −6.54%, DEWA −3.31%, TPIA flat.
  • That's a tape where money is rotating into one defensive large cap and out of commodity/energy and telecom. Roughly 800+ names trading, gainers dominated by low-priced microcaps (BIPP, KOKA, LAPD, LAJU) on thin value.

Read: index-level strength today is narrow. For a non-large-cap like SOLA, a narrow BBCA-led tape is a headwind for follow-through, and any bounce on low volume is unlikely to be trusted by the flow screen.

What would actually move this to a view

  1. SOLA's own price action — last close, position vs 20/50-day MA, and whether volume is expanding on up days or on down days (the exact thing the screener is testing for).
  2. Recent corporate news — the news vendor has nothing, so check IDX disclosures directly: any RUPS, rights issue, private placement, or financial statement release in the last 4–6 weeks would explain both the silence and any distribution pattern.
  3. Liquidity — if daily value traded is small, entry/exit slippage dominates any technical edge, and screener-style signals are unreliable regardless of what they print.

If you paste SOLA's recent OHLCV (or tell me the price range you're working with), I'll do the technical read properly against this breadth backdrop. Alternatively, tell me what's drawing you to it — chart, news, or a screener elsewhere — and I'll pressure-test that specific case.